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Beware Godzilla

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JUSTIN NEW SMALLAs many blog readers know, for a few years I kept a list of all of the media/scientist reports of all of the bad things that were projected to happen because of anthropogenic global warming (AGW). It was the“AGW list”. You can read one of the last entries about it here.Many of the items on the list came the way of a scary headline. Dramatic headlines draw more attention. This applies not only to climate and environmental issues but for every type of news, as I wrote about just recently in regards to automated cars.

After getting past the headlines and reading many of the AGW articles, I generally assumed that in most cases, the actual scientists who were the source of the material and often quoted were not to blame for the boisterous blather. A few times they were, but if it was not clear, I would assume that the writers were just picking out the most dramatic tidbits and blowing them up.

This is not the case in the latest El Nino update.

In case you haven’t heard, there is an El Nino occurring in the Pacific ocean. It has been slowly strengthening throughout the year. It is now projected to become a strong El Nino. How strong? To answer that, we need to understand what defines a weak, moderate, and strong El Nino. When the water temperature in a region of the equatorial Pacific reaches 0.5 degree C above normal (over a multi-month average), then it is a weak El Nino. If that same region reaches 1.0 degree C above average, then it is considered a moderate El Nino. Once the water temperature climbs to 1.5 degrees C above average or higher, then it is termed a strong El Nino. Above 2.0 degrees C above average andit becomes avery strong El Nino.Since detailed and accurate monitoring of Pacific ocean temps began (1950), there have been seven documented “strong” El Nino’s, two of which were “very strong”. Take a look a the historical table hereor here for a graphical look. (be aware that the page with the graphical lookis not counting the 1987-88 and 1991-92 El Nino’s as strong, even though the temps did briefly rise above 1.5 degrees C).

So how strong is a “Godzilla” El Nino? I am not sure, but this term was bandied about all over the internet, TV, and radio around the world yesterday. Was it “the media” inventing a term and blowing things out of proportion? Apparently not. This article from a government sponsored news service quotes an actual government climatologist using the term “Godzilla”. I cannot say why this term was chosen (over say “super El Nino”, or “the strongest ever”), but typically one would use such “monster” terminology in order to scare people, in other words, just what Ithoughtmost scientists generally DIDN’T do in regards to AGW.

CPC computer model projections

CPC computer model projections

Maybe the person was just having fun. Maybehe wasbeing interviewed over the phone and it was the first word that popped intohis head. I will hold that out as a possibility, but even if the terminology was different, the facts of the matter don’t yet support such hyperbole. Take a look at the latest computer model projectionsof El Nino for the next few months. Each line represents a different computer model. As you can see, there isa largespread in the projections. Asmall number (5)of the models predict a weak to moderate El Nino. A small number (5)predict a very strong or recordEl Nino. The majority of the models project temps in the range of 1.5 to 2.0 above normal, which would be a strong El Nino. If you averaged allthe models together, you would end up with a number close to 2.0. What the CPC does is draw lines indicating the average of the statistical models (topping out atabout 1.6), the dynamical models (topping out at about 2.1), and the CPC consensus forecast (reaching 2.1).

So how would an El Nino of 2.1 compare to other El Nino’s? It would make it as strong as the 1982-83 El Nino, but not as strong as the 1997-98 El Nino (2.3). So it might end up ranking as the second strongest El Nino since 1950. There might have been stronger episodes prior to 1950, since El Nino has been around for millennia, but we don’t have good records back that far, only rough proxies.

Yes, there is a possibility that this El Nino could be the strongest ever. Yes, there could be wide-rangingeffects similar to or greater than the 1997-1998 El Nino. Yes, the Green Bay Packers could win every game by 20 points this year (really, it is a possibility!). But, more likely, based on the known elements of football and the talents of the players, one would mostly likely be wrong predicting the Packers to win every game by 20 points or even win all of their games. Similarly, predicting a “Godzilla” El Nino, or a record El Nino at this point is stretching it a bit. If I had to predict (with my limited ENSO knowledge), given that ocean temps are a bit warmer than they were back in 1997-1998, I would say El Nino has a good chance of reaching a similar strength (2.3), but I would be very certain to outline the probabilities and highlight the fact that the current averaged projections indicate somewhere between 1.6 and 2.1.

Why is the Godzillahyperbole a problem? Because government policies and preparations are based upon the forecasts. Hyperbole can result in a largemis-allocation of time and resources. Society functions byNOT always preparing for the absoluteworst (believe it or not). If we always prepared for the worst possible outcome, progress would by stymied. All of our wealth would be sucked into creating a protective bubble for all people at all times. It is a delicate balance, preparing for disasters, without breaking the bank. Good statistical representations of therange of impacts from various threatsare our best guidance.

Finally, don’t mistake this mild rant as an effort to boostMY image. I am prone to bias and hyperbole just like everyone else and use “dramatic flare” to drive home a point occasionally. My concern is that government scientists are held up as the epitome of truth and rationality, yet this episode reveals a penchant for “crying wolf”, or “Godzilla”, when it is not yet warranted based on the average El Nino model projections.

Have a good Friday! Meteorologist Justin Loew


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